What was the shortest bear market in history?
The shortest bear market lasted just 33 days, in the spring of 2020. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 21 bear markets (not including the current downturn). That's approximately one every 4.5 years, on average. The average length of a bear market is 388 days.
| Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
|---|---|---|
| July 1990 to October 1990 | 3 months | -20% |
| March 2000 to October 2002 | 31 months | -49% |
| October 2007 to March 2009 | 17 months | -56% |
| February 2020 to March 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
The S&P 500 fell 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, ending the GFC bear market. Between the tech bubble bear market earlier in the decade and the GFC, the 2000s went down as one of the worst decades for stock investors ever. Even worse than the 1930s!
Bear 6: November 1980—August 1982
This bear market lasted 622 days, with the overall market dropping 27.11%. This is actually a bear market that had two recessions in it.
In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark suffered the seventh-worst bear market in its history, losing over 45% of its value.
The largest single-day percentage declines for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both occurred on Oct. 19, 1987 with the S&P 500 falling by 20.5 percent and the Dow falling by 22.6 percent. Two of the four largest percentage declines for the Dow occurred on consecutive days — Oct. 28 and 29 in 1929.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
Historically, the index has taken an average of 19 months to recover from bear market declines of 20% or more, as shown in the accompanying table.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
Will US market crash in 2024?
"There's a solid chance that we see renewed weakness in the economic and earnings numbers as we move through 2024. The deepest concern is that the inflation numbers have started to renew their move higher." Bodenmiller agrees with that sentiment. "Inflation data continues to be a major market catalyst," he says.
It's likely that, if you invest in a bear market, you will at first sustain some losses that will test your nerve. Conversely, if you take profits as markets are rising, you will often see prices rise further after you have sold. However, with a long enough time horizon, you should expect to see positive results.
Bull markets often follow bear markets. These are defined as an increase of 20% or more in stock prices. There have been many bull markets since 1930. While bull markets often last for years, a significant portion of the gains typically accrue during the early months of a stock market rally.
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
Key Takeaways. The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months.
Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.
In terms of the overall decline in output and the rise in unemployment, the 1973-1975 recession was more severe than any of the five earlier reces- sions of the post-World War" period. But in terms of the reduction in employ- ment, it was relatively moderate.
Stocks lose 35% on average in a bear market.
| ASSET | YEAR | % RETURN |
|---|---|---|
| Raytheon Technologies (RTX) | 1974 | 47.75% |
| Matson (MATX) | 1974 | 45.09% |
| Boeing (BA) | 1974 | 33.08% |
| International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) | 1974 | 13.79% |
If the price of your stocks drops while you are holding it, you have not lost any money at all. Values fluctuate, but you are holding stocks, not money. It only becomes money again when you sell it. If you sell your stocks for less than you paid for them, only then have you lost money.
What president had the highest stock market?
And the shocking leader of the bunch? President Calvin Coolidge, who took office in 1923, whose stock price performance change was a whopping 208.52%, for an average monthly return of 1.74%. That's the largest for any president since the start of the 20th century.
Since those reforms, the stock market has crashed in 2000, 2008 and 2020, roughly once every seven years, with the 2022 crash brought on by the coronavirus.
The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
Another option is to reduce your spending as much as you can during a bear market. This will allow you to withdraw less money from your portfolio when prices are down. Cutting spending isn't easy, but it may help you sleep better and get you through a period of high volatility.
It typically takes five months to reach the “bottom” of a correction. However, once the market starts to turn, it can recover quickly. The average recovery time for a correction is just four months! That's why investors with truly diversified portfolios may consider staying investing for the long-term.
