How do I retire in a bear market?
Spend Stable Assets, Protect Income-Generating Assets
A potential strategy in a bear market (or any market) is to buy and hold stocks from major index funds like the S&P 500. Data from Crestmont Research shows that S&P 500 returns in any 20-year period from 1919 to 2022 were positive.
Sequence risk matters. New or soon-to-be retirees considering drawing down investments should have a plan to prevent early market losses from doing long-term damage to their portfolios. Consider strategies to put off or reduce withdrawals, such as continuing to work or consult instead of retiring in a down market.
So, if you're aiming for $100,000 a year in retirement and also receiving Social Security checks, you'd need to have this amount in your portfolio: age 62: $2.1 million. age 67: $1.9 million. age 70: $1.8 million.
Market downturns can make you feel like you're even more behind in your savings goals. “We believe the key thing to do is to keep your 401(k) funds invested. If you take them out of the market, you may lock in losses and could miss out on opportunities for market rebounds.”
Selling off all your stocks after seeing red in your portfolio during a bear market is the last thing you want to do. Volatility is scary, especially if you are risk averse, but running with the volatility wave is key and beneficial to the success of your long-term portfolio.
Government bonds and defensive stocks historically perform better during a bear market. However, most people investing for the long term shouldn't be aggressively tweaking portfolios every time there is a sell-off.
As you plan your retirement, make sure to consider the state of the market. While you don't want to retire into a bear market if possible, retiring at the top of a bull market can pose the same risks, too. That's the reminder from recent commentary offered by Morningstar's Christine Benz.
Conventional wisdom holds that when you hit your 70s, you should adjust your investment portfolio so it leans heavily toward low-risk bonds and cash accounts and away from higher-risk stocks and mutual funds. That strategy still has merit, according to many financial advisors.
History of the 4% rule
Based on a deep dive into the half century of market data, Bergen concluded that essentially any conceivable economic scenario (even the more tumultuous ones) would allow for a 4% withdrawal during the year they retire and then they'd adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.
What is the average 401k balance for a 65 year old?
| Age range | Average balance | Median balance |
|---|---|---|
| 35-44 | $76,354 | $28,318 |
| 45-54 | $142,069 | $48,301 |
| 55-64 | $207,874 | $71,168 |
| 65+ | $232,710 | $70,620 |
Social Security offers a monthly benefit check to many kinds of recipients. As of December 2023, the average check is $1,767.03, according to the Social Security Administration – but that amount can differ drastically depending on the type of recipient. In fact, retirees typically make more than the overall average.
Average Monthly Retirement Income
According to data from the BLS, average 2022 incomes after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $63,187 per year or $5,266 per month. 75 and older: $47,928 per year or $3,994 per month.
The day you retire will be about as good as it gets. If you retire at the bottom of a bear market, even if you change your risk profile to be conservative, your financial days will likely only get better. A recovery makes retirement living so much easier.
If the dollar collapses, your 401(k) would lose a significant amount of value, possibly even becoming worthless. Inflation would result if the dollar collapsed, decreasing the real value of the dollar when compared to other global currencies, which in effect would reduce the value of your 401(k).
The safest place to put your retirement funds is in low-risk investments and savings options with guaranteed growth. Low-risk investments and savings options include fixed annuities, savings accounts, CDs, treasury securities, and money market accounts. Of these, fixed annuities usually provide the best interest rates.
An average 20-30% of funds allocated to cash can allow investors to protect their investments from hefty market falls and have the cushion left over to buy when the economy rises in the future.
Think about the things consumers will need no matter what – those are the sectors that tend to perform well during market downturns. Even amid high inflation, people still need gas, groceries and health care, so things such as consumer staples and utilities usually weather bear markets better than others.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
Invest in stocks that you want to own for the long run, and don't sell them simply because their prices went down in a bear market. Focus on quality: When bear markets hit, it's true that companies often go out of business.
Should I buy during a bear market?
The bottom line. When a bear strikes, you can see share prices falling hard and market values getting lower. Mentally, this may trigger your sense to "buy low," which is generally a smart thing to do. But emotionally, it's hard to hold on to assets that are losing value for weeks or months at a time.
The 120-age investment rule is a theory directing investors to keep a higher allocation of riskier investments for longer. This approach helps build more wealth over time, which is critical for the increased average lifespan of retirees.
It may make sense to hold a percentage of stocks equal to 110 or 120 minus your age. You should consider other factors in your investment strategy, including the age at which you want to retire and the amount of money you think you'll need.
The truth is that most investors won't have the money to generate $1,000 per month in dividends; not at first, anyway. Even if you find a market-beating series of investments that average 3% annual yield, you would still need $400,000 in up-front capital to hit your targets.
What is the 15x15x15 rule in mutual funds? The mutual fund 15x15x15 rule simply put means invest INR 15000 every month for 15 years in a stock that can offer an interest rate of 15% on an annual basis, then your investment will amount to INR 1,00,26,601/- after 15 years.
