What is the financial forecast for 2024?
Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation.
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on Monday predicted that gross domestic product — a measure of the value of goods and services — will rise 2.2% in 2024, a significantly more bullish forecast than what the group projected only two months ago.
“As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.”
The 2024–25 Outlook
We expect growth to rebound to a 2.0 percent pace by 2025Q1 and stay in that range through yearend. On a Q4-to-Q4 basis, real GDP grows by 1.8 percent during 2024 and 2.2 percent during 2025.
Mortgage rate predictions 2024
The MBA's forecast suggests that 30-year mortgage rates will fall into the 6.1% to 6.8% range in 2024, and NAR's forecast is very similar, predicting that rates will remain in the 6.1% to 6.8% range.
In calendar year 2023, the U.S. economy grew faster than it did in 2022, even as inflation slowed. Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in the middle of the year.
The economic data should “give more confidence that the US economy is recovering in additional sectors and recession fears for 2024 are likely to be pushed into 2025”, it noted. This means that if there was a potential recession it is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data.
The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says. "There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.
By February 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 58.31 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This is a decrease from the projection of the preceding month when the probability was 61.47 percent.
ITR Economics is projecting that the next Great Depression will begin in 2030 and last well into 2036. However, we do not expect a simple, completely downward trend throughout those years. There will be signs of slight growth that pop up during this period.
Will the economy recover in 2025?
We expect the U.S. economy to avoid a recession over the next two years. Real GDP expands by 2.4 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 2.0 percent in 2025. The unemployment rate is projected to inch up through 2025Q1, peaking at just 4.3 percent.
In 2025, real GDP growth rises to 2.2 percent, supported by lower interest rates and improved financial conditions. (Unless this report indicates otherwise, annual growth rates are measured from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next.)
Overall, despite an expected slowdown in the coming quarters, we expect the US economy to post real growth of 2.4% this year and 1.4% in 2025. Over the entire forecast, economic growth averages 1.8% per year, slightly higher than the long-term potential of 1.5% per year.
After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%. Inflation has started to recede, but the committee has signaled it wants to see more positive data before pulling the trigger.
Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates. Previously, Goldman had expected the 30-year mortgage rate to be at 7.1% by the end of 2024 and at 6.6% by the end of 2025.
The Fed's March meeting confirmed that policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee expect interest rates to fall in 2024. Most of them expect two or three cuts this year, according to March's Summary of Economic Projections.
Economists at S&P 500 Global Ratings now expect US real gross domestic product to grow by 2.4% in 2024, up from their forecast of 1.5% in November. The labor market remains incredibly resilient, with unemployment at historic lows and wage inflation remaining elevated.
The U.S. economy avoided the recession forecast for 2023. Experts now say a soft landing or mild recession is possible in 2024.
“The American economy is not in a silent depression. It's not even in a depression at all,” House said. “When we came into 2023, many economists thought we might slide into a recession over the course of the year, but growth in goods and services and in trade have all remained far stronger than we anticipated.”
What happens to house prices in a recession? While the cost of financing a home increases when interest rates are on the rise, home prices themselves may actually decline. “Usually, during a recession or periods of higher interest rates, demand slows and values of homes come down,” says Miller.
How do you make money in a recession?
Many investors turn to stocks in companies that sell consumer staples like health care, food and beverages, and personal hygiene products. These businesses typically remain profitable during recessions and their share prices tend to better resist stock market sell-offs.
The Great Recession of 2008 to 2009 was the worst economic downturn in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Domestic product declined 4.3%, the unemployment rate doubled to more than 10%, home prices fell roughly 30% and at its worst point, the S&P 500 was down 57% from its highs.
One of the most reliable indicators of a coming recession is an inverted yield curve. Normally, interest rates are higher for longer-term bonds than shorter-term ones because investors need to be rewarded for risking their money for a longer period.
Lasting from December 2007 to June 2009, this economic downturn was the longest since World War II. The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, which makes it the longest recession since World War II. Beyond its duration, the Great Recession was notably severe in several respects.
While we no longer forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over Q2 and Q3 2024. Thereafter, inflation and interest rates should normalize and quarterly annualized GDP growth should converge toward its potential of near 2 percent in 2025.
